The wildfire season in 2022 is looking like it will be even worse than last year. AccuWeather chief meteorologist Jonathan Porter joined Cheddar News to talk about how people who live in areas that may be affected should prepare for the blistering heat and dry conditions.  "This year we are forecasting anywhere from 8.1 to 8.3 million acres burned," he said. "That’s more than one million more acres than last year."

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AccuWeather Predicts Intense Wildfire Season That Could Burn 8.3 Million Acres

last year's record breaking wildfire season saw 7.7 million acres burning across the western us. That caused between 70 and 90 billion billion dollars in damage. If you think that's bad, Accuweather's 2022 wildfire forecast says this year could be worse thanks to a dry winter in western states. Record breaking drought, intense winds and a lot of other factors. One state is already at risk. We're talking about new Mexico. It's expected to see record heat levels, high winds, low humidity over the next week as the Calf Canyon fire near santa fe continues to burn. President Biden has declared a major disaster and will provide federal assistance joining us. Now, Jonathan, Porter, chief meteorologist at Accuweather, Jonathan, welcome back to the show. So as the Calf Canyon fire burns, how bad could things becoming New Mexico? What do residents? Americans viewers need to know right now? Well, have a good afternoon, Good to be with you once again. And this is a very serious situation across the southwestern part of the United States here at Accuweather. We've been talking about the wildfire risk building for months in advance and of course this is the time of the year that wildfires are a big problem across the southwest, Henna. The issue this year is that we've had repeated rounds of gusty winds across the Southwest as storms have pulled to the north, that's created gusty winds, very dry conditions and a worsening drought, especially over New Mexico and this weekend, I'm afraid we're going to be dealing with another one of those situations where the winds are going to become quite gusty, it's going to be hot across texas and parts of New Mexico feel more like summer this weekend. And we're concerned that that's going to take an already serious wildfire situation with six big wildfires are occurring at this hour across New Mexico and make it very, making it even more serious situation as we head through the weekend and unfortunately had yet another round of gusty winds likely as we head toward later next week Across the southwest as well, they can't catch a break. Let's turn to your 2022 forecast here, Jonathan. What are the biggest takeaways from your report? Well, Hannah, I think one of the biggest takeaways is that we're continuing to see this long term very severe drought across the southwestern part of the United States. This is in fact the climate becoming more arid, becoming more a dryer, becoming hotter across the Southwest, driven by climate change. And so it's no surprise that with that persistent and significant drought that we're talking about yet again, another above average season from the accuweather wildfire forecast driven by the wildfire activity across the western United States this year, Hannah, we're forecasting anywhere from 8.128 .3 million acres burned. That's more than a million acres More than last year. Uh it looks like it will be one of the top 10 wildfire years in terms of the overall risk and a little bit of a different risk at times in parts of the West as California did get a little bit of rain in December, rain and mountain snow in December and then also again in April. So that's going to help to in some places green things up initially. But then as the summer wears on, dry things out before the heart of the wildfire season really kicks up later in july across northern California and even later heading into the fall across the south. So another significant risk not only just in California, but in many states of the West, which are dealing with water restrictions and many impacts from this Ongoing and significant drought. The worst in 1200 years, perhaps the worst in 1200 years. That is an important factor. So we know the West Coast as you well know, experiences a variety of different weather conditions. What are the biggest factors that could make the wildfires worse this year? Well, there's a couple of sort of wild cards that we look at as far as the risk during the wildfire season. Of course, our expert team looks at all kinds of weather and ocean factors to help understand what kind of a setup is likely through the summer and that is one of the inputs to our forecast. A couple of the wild cards that we look at is what will the monsoon season look like and Hannah, those are the showers and thunderstorms that often blossom in the afternoon across the four corners region, the southwestern part of the United States. When you have a more active monsoon, there's more frequent showers and thunderstorms that can sort of dampen. It creates more precipitation and dampens the wildfire risk. So in general, that's a positive thing. Last year was a pretty active monsoon, especially in places like Arizona, up to Utah, we expect it to once again be pretty active this year. So that can be a help once of course you get into the season and it starts becoming wetter right at the beginning of the monsoon season. That can be a concern to create more wildfires because you get a lot of those dry thunderstorms that produce a lot of lightning, but not a lot of rain yet because everything is so dry. So that's one wild card that we look at. The other thing is, can there be any tropical moisture midlevel tropical moisture drawn up into California because while conditions at the ground remain very dry during the heart of the summer, that mid level moisture sometimes coming up from parts of the eastern pacific ocean can help create a situation where you get more of those dry thunderstorms, lots of lightning, not a lot of rain and Hannah. That's one of the reasons that we had so many problems with the lightning complex fire and see other significant fires, Especially in northern California during 2020, fortunately that wasn't as widespread last year. But we do see some signs that that type of a pattern may try to set up once again this year and that can cause a rapid acceleration of the fire season in parts of California in July. So that's something we'll be watching Jonathan. I do have to ask you about climate change. Do you think this has a direct impact on the wildfire conditions in the Western us that we're seeing? Yeah, absolutely. There's a strong correlation to the atmosphere warming, certainly in the western United States on average, that's the part of the country during the summer that is impacted the most from a warmer than normal perspective and a drier than normal perspective as it relates to climate change, a very strong link between climate change impacts and increasing wildfire risk in the west. And that is not only just in terms of the concern about wildfires that threaten lives and property in many communities, but also the wild, the smoke produced from wildfires, which can, as we know, be generated and, and uh and move a large distance away from where the fires are occurring. That is a big health concern for people, especially those with underlying respiratory conditions. We saw a lot of problems with that last year across the Western United States. That's one of the reasons that accuweather, we recently acquired plume labs, the largest supplier of air quality forecasts around the world. And we've integrated that neighborhood by neighborhood in the free Accuweather app. Great way to track health impacts from wildfire smoke this upcoming season, which of course causes many health concerns as I mentioned, but also lots of insurance claims, henna for property damage, home and business property damage from wildfire smoke way away from fires. How can people prepare here, Jonathan? What do viewers need to know what sort of tools should they have, What can they expect? Well, we talked about the, the Free Accuweather app, that's an important tool because we also highlight in their time periods like this weekend across the southwest where we're expecting an elevated fire concerns. So being aware of that in your own community is a good thing. But the other important aspect is to think about how to prepare, you're at a greater risk, especially if you live near what we call the wildland urban interface. That's the, these are beautiful places to live, but they're right where homes and businesses come right up against wildlands and fires can come right out of the wild lands and into populated places and cause lots of damage and threatened homes. So it's important to know your wildfire risk. There's also lots of things you can do in terms of making sure that you have the right, you have dry brush and vegetation cleared up from your yard and the selections you make for landscaping, especially in the highest risk areas can make a difference in terms of how your property does if a wildfire threatens and also even things as simple as looking at our, as the appropriate protection on your age fact intakes because lots of times embers from wildfires can brought get into a home in that way and ignite a fire from inside your home from those from a nearby nearby wildfire. So those are things to think about. There are things you can do to reduce your risk, know your risk and things you can talk to your insurance company about and local fire departments I'm sure will be more than happy to provide input on how you can say better protected during the wildfire season. Well, thank you for your input and all that great information, Jonathan, Porter, chief meteorologist at Accuweather. Thank you as always, Jonathan.