Be Well: Assessing the State of the Economy With Marty Cantor

<div class="block">Marty Cantor, CPA and economic development consultant, joined Cheddar News to talk about the state of the economy as the latest economic data revealed that inflation slowed in May. Cantor said despite the cooling period, inflation continues to be a thorn in the side of the U.S. economy.</div>

beWell

Time now for your money with Marty. And we've been talking so much lately about inflation. But the latest numbers from the labor department actually showed the inflation rate cooled a bit in May to its lowest annual rate. Now in about two years, the consumer price index which measures changes in a multitude of goods and services. It increased by just 0.1% for the month, bringing the annual level down to 4%. So that 12 month increase was actually the smallest that we've seen since March 2021 when inflation was really just beginning to rise. And what would become really those high high interest rates more than, you know, 41 years. So now Marty is here to talk about, you know, that core inflation and what you see in these numbers. Well, the real story, if you take out energy which decreased about 17% right, the inflation really is up at 5.3% and that's for food, which went up, our used cars went up, rents are going up the things that impact directly they've all gone up. So inflation is still pretty stubborn with us. Yes, it's down significantly from when we started. And some of the, you know, some of the FED policies are working, but still, it's very high. It's high when you consider that the FED is shooting for a 2% target inflation rate. So we still have a ways to go. All right, let's talk about shelter housing related costs. We know make up just about one third of the index. We, and we take a look at a 0.6% increase in shelter prices. So that was a really big contributor. Well, it is, you know, housing, whether you buy a house or the rents, particularly, you know, in New York City right now, uh the rent Stabilization board has already uh is meeting and held public hearings, but they're looking at 2 3% increase in rent per uh year, maybe a little higher for, for uh multi year year leases. But that's what the landlords need. So, uh you know, that's gonna continue to go up and you know, there's a real question going on in the FED is what's driving the inflation? Is it high wages, which drive uh inflation or is inflation driving high wages? So the data is gonna be very important for the FED to look at uh to determine what its future strategy is going to be to not only control inflation but bring it down. All right, let's talk about those used vehicles. Yeah, they're going up. I mean, I, I'm amazed, you know, maybe it's time for me to sell my mustang. I mean, the used cars are going up but, but, you know, the, this, the, uh, even though the prices are going up, uh, they're gonna, they're predicted to go down a little bit because remember the new cars have gone up significantly in price. So it's making the used cars, uh, you know, more desirable for people with, with, uh, less household income to spend. But, yeah, they, they've gone up the used cars because, remember, uh, for three years people really haven't done much with their cars and now it's time to trade in now that they got travel. Uh, they have to go to work. So, yeah, there's, there's some demand for those, uh, used cars been talking about that. Can you gas also a contributor? Well, that's gone down. I mean, yeah, oddly enough, it's crazy. The, uh, OPEC and the Saudis keep on, uh, uh, on their production, which theoretically should increase oil and gas prices, but they haven't, the demand for travel and for gasoline is not as much as, as it would have been. So, gas prices have gone down. Remember when they were approaching 5% $5 a gallon rather a couple of years ago. Now they're, what, 3 60. So, and they've been that way for a long time. There's been a lot of stability in the, in the gasoline prices. Yeah, gas prices have actually fallen 19.7. Percent over the past year. That's from that, you know, same, same statistics. So, I mean, that's, that's a big contributor when you look at that number, that's why when you take, when you remove the energy from the uh 4% CP I number that just came out, it really hits 5.3%. Now, the interesting thing is we're gonna see uh the producer price index. Uh it, it should come out soon. And what that's gonna do is last year, last month, uh producer price index was, was higher than consumer price. So this really tells us if the producer price comes in lower, then we could be heading in the right direction. But if producer price index, which is really the wholesale price of goods and services goes up, then we still have a real problem that the fed has to deal with. I just wanna mention food though because so many people get, you know, continue to get that sticker shock when they go grocery shopping. Oh, a a absolutely. Almost everything is up. But oddly enough, uh certain places, uh I, I was in Chinatown in New York City and I could buy a dozen eggs for a, for a dollar and a half and in other places, they're $4.5.05 dollars a gallon still out a gallon, a dozen, a dozen still. So, so, uh you know, it depends where you buy. I think if consumers do some quality shopping, uh, for pricing, they might be able to get some good deals and avoid the high prices. And if, uh, if you have some unclaimed money there is money out there, the deadline to file though coming up. 17, well, there's a lot of unclaimed money overall. The, uh, IRS has about $1.5 billion from the 2019 tax year. Uh, you have only until the middle of July to collect it. Go to the, uh, website. Where's my refund at IRS dot com? They'll tell you, uh, don't, uh, if, uh, you have someone who passed away during the last three years, they're separate forms. Uh, and, you know, there's a tax refund, it's formed 13 10, that's the refund in respect of a deceit and file that and you'll get the decedents refund. Uh, if you think you've gotten a check or you take a look at the IRS website and they say they mailed the check to you but you didn't get it. That's form 39 11. That's, that's, uh, a form that tells the IRS that you didn't get, get your refund and it tells, uh, and it tells them where to send it. So, pay attention. Uh, and the last thing New York State has $17 billion worth of unclaimed funds. Uh, the office of the New York State Controller, uh, check that out to see if you have funds that are due. You, Marty can as always so much. Great information. Thanks so much.