Be Well: How Federal Spending Could Lead to Another Interest Rate Hike

<div class="block">Marty Cantor, CPA and economic development consultant, returned to Cheddar News to talk about the state of the economy with respect to the jobs market as the number of openings fluctuates month over month. He attributed the U.S. struggle with inflation to the government overspending to create jobs, which he also noted will likely lead to another interest rate hike. </div>

beWell

Welcome back to be. Well, it's time now for your money with Marty and the number of available jobs in the US actually dropped in May after it had that up to the month before. That's the latest information that we have from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. So taking a look at the actual numbers, job openings fell to 9.82 million at the end of May dropping from what was upwardly revised 10.3 million in April. So we want to really break down what this jolts report as it's called job openings and labor turnover report surveys show. So Marty answer talk us through what really stood out to you. Well, the big thing that stands out for me is that the jobs that were cut or the reduction of available jobs were in the private sector. So that 602,000 jobs were taken off the market and the the offset was there was 100 and 2000 jobs created by government and that's what caused, that's what's causing this big inflationary problem we have. And that's what, what's making it struggle to get out of inflation is that the government keeps on spending money creating jobs when it shouldn't be. And that's the problem that the Federal Reserve is having when it meets in July with the most this month, most likely will increase interest rates because the government has to stop spending money and that's what's causing the problem. All right, let's look, specific, specific into the job market openings were 40% higher layoffs were 21% fewer and quits were at 15% above February of 2020. So obviously, we're not looking at the great recession of not the great session, the great resignation, but we are still seeing people quitting. Well, yeah, but remember what the economy looked like in February 2020 the gross domestic product was growing at 2% non inflationary growth and inflation itself is 1.4%. So the economy was, was operating in a capitalistic way right now. Our inflation is 5%. Uh and, and the debt is 33% and, and the GDP is 26%. So we have, we have our economy is fueled by debt and government spending. Whereas before in February uh 2020 it was, it was our normal system of economic system operating very positively. So we have two different economic systems operating right now. One where it should be where private sector is creating jobs and creating profits and today where the government is getting very involved in how the economy is being fueled Well, I just wonder like Zip recruiter broke it down, like, in terms of, you know, how many million, so the quits were popping back up above four million. That's the first time since December. So I'm wondering, are people leaving their job because they're not getting the raises that keep up with inflation? So, if I go somewhere else that's willing to pay me more money, is that why people are leaving? Absolutely. Because remember, wages have gone up maybe 3 to 4%. Inflation is still hovering around 5%. So people are looking for better job opportunities, you know, and also a lot of people have taken jobs during the, during this inflation every time they need to job. So this could be the second job being filled because remember it's, it's really uh uh the jobs are being filled are in the social services, the the uh health care uh uh tourism, those kind of jobs where, where you don't need this high level of skill set except for certain health care jobs. So people can move for a second job. That's what's happening here. Uh And remember the new jobs that the quits and the new jobs pretty much equal, the pull back on the posted jobs at 468,000 reduction in post. The jobs that employees are, are, are are taken off the market. I can't wait to hear your answer to this one. So is this really the soft landing because we're not seeing this big crash to the job market. But we're kind of, you know, just seeing like subtle changes, we are nowhere near even saying a soft land near a hard landing because inflation is still up near 5% and the Fed wants it to get down to 2%. So, so we have to get really much closer to that 2% to really and also to see the impact on unemployment with the Federal Reserve pulling out nearly a trillion dollars over the past year. And also remember that the big thing is that corporate profits have gone down the last three quarters and it is expected to drop by 6.4% the second quarter of this year where it dropped by 1.3% the first quarter. So if profits drop in the capitalistic sector and private sector, jobs have to follow and if jobs follow in terms of being reduced, then we can talk about what kind of landing we're going to have. If unemployment goes up, job losses go up, it might be a bumpier landing rather than a soft landing. Ok. So now here's your crystal ball. We know the central bank did those, you know, 10 consecutive rate hikes followed by the pause. What's next? Oh, they're gonna increase it the next time, easily a quarter of a point. Uh in July the next meeting. Uh They're already talking about if they're talking about two raises between now and the end of the year. They're gonna do more. Uh because this is a stubborn inflation. Uh The rate is not going down and unemployment is not going down. Uh There's got to be a uh a more of a negative impact to the economy to really defeat inflation. It's just not happening. All right. Thank you so much, Marty Cancer. A pleasure as always.