October 7, 2020
Former Vice President Joe Biden leads President Donald Trump by 10 points in the 2020 presidential race, according to a new Cheddar/SurveyUSA poll, extending a streak that has shown the Democratic candidate ahead in nearly all major national polls this cycle.
The poll, conducted October 1-4, 2020, showed that overall 53 percent of likely voters say they would support Biden and 43 percent say they would support Trump.
However, as the poll was conducted after the first presidential debate and both before and after the president's COVID-19 diagnosis on Thursday, it also shows Biden consolidated support among likely voters after the president was hospitalized at Walter Reed. Forty percent of respondents were polled after that hospitalization and among those likely voters, Biden leads Trump 56-40 percent.
The president continues to enjoy popularity with Republicans, however. When asked if they are voting for Donald Trump or against Joe Biden, 81 percent of likely Trump voters say it is for the president.
When likely Biden voters were asked the same question, whether they are voting for the former vice president or against the president, 58 percent say they are voting for Biden but 39 percent say they are voting against Trump.
There are also other concerning signs for the president's reelection bid. Suburban men, a group of voters critical to Trump's victory in 2016, now back Biden 51-44 percent. Among suburban women, a group the president continues to try to court with a safety and security message, Trump trails Biden by 21 points.
This tracked along with the issues driving Americans to the polls this year. Zero percent of voters selected "protecting suburbs from the mob" when asked for their top voting issue. Unsurprisingly, a plurality of voters, 15 percent, agree the economy is their top concern. Coming second among all likely voters in the ranked list of issues is defeating Donald Trump at 14 percent. For voters who self-identify as Democrats, a quarter of them see this as their top priority at the ballot box.
With less than a month to go until Election Day and voters in dozens of states already casting ballots, there is still a lack of trust in the electoral process.
Among likely voters who support Trump for reelection, 41 percent say they will accept the election result if Biden wins. In contrast, of those who support Biden, just 31 percent say they will accept the electoral outcome if Trump wins.
This may be due, in part, to how voters view the president's motivations toward pursuing his reelection. Less than a third of likely voters believe Trump is concerned with keeping Americans safe, compared to 56 percent who believe he is more concerned with gaining another term in office.
This comes after the president has repeatedly cast doubt on the security of mail-in voting, despite evidence from states that use these ballots regularly that the process is safe, secure, and does not produce partisan bias.
With an expected surge of mail-in voting and record-high turnout, it's unlikely that voters will have an answer on election night, which voters seem to recognize.
Just 28 percent of those polled believe we will know the results of the race on Election Day with 63 percent of voters expecting a result by Thanksgiving.
The poll of 1,114 likely voters was conducted online between October 1 and October 4 by SurveyUSA, exclusively for Cheddar.