Sean Zerillo, Senior Writer for Action Network and co-host of the MLB podcast "Payoff Pitch" joins Cheddar Bets to discuss why under have been a lucrative bet for him so far, and how he's adjusting his strategies moving forward.

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How the Experts are Adjusting Their MLB Betting Strategies

Welcome back to cheddar brats brought to you by bet. Mgm. Well, we've got a hat trick of baseball games to bet on after the show today. But before we get into that we wanted to take a quick step back and reflect on the betting lessons we've learned or should have learned by now uh during the early part of this season joining us now is Sean Zarrillo, senior writer at Action Network and co host of the MLB podcast payoff pitch. Sean the season is still very young and I have to ask you, what have you had the most and least success with betting on so far. Yeah. Young. But I think far enough in that we're starting to get data that is stabilizing and it's showing that under Czar, an absolute boon so far cashing it close to a 60% clip, I've been right around there closer to 58%, which is roughly where I was last year. But with that overs are getting absolutely destroyed sitting at 40% on the season and I'm at 41% so slightly more above expectation but have been consistently adjusting. And the market has as well based on the new run scoring environment, there's a lot of new things going on that are influencing these totals. If you just about $100 blind on every single under this season, you have a 15% return on your investment and to be up almost 2800. All right. So when it comes to strategy now, how do you think you're gonna adjust your strategy going forward? Yeah, it's it's definitely been something that I've had to adjust on the flying quickly is adjusting these totals down pretty aggressively. And the market has been right there with me. Now. We have a lot of factors to consider new baseballs humidors in all 30 parks this year, short spring training. So the headers kind of seem out of sync. The bad weather that's going on and reliever velocity is up more than ever before this year. Even though starters are a little bit down, Reliever velocity is actually up. I think the most interesting thing I said that unders are cashing in a 60% clip, first five innings, unders and overs and unders, they're actually very neutral around 52%. So all the scoring is coming early in these games and then sort of dropping off late. So I'm not sure if I have to adjust how I would normally do first five versus full games or just the just the entire totals themselves. But my run environment has consistently come down and I'm not sure if I can make it low enough at this point, I've just seen so many balls die at the warning track hitters giving that little hop after they think they got all of it only for it to fall into a glove three ft from the wall. So it's been a little bit of fruit frustrating to need runs and just the every ball die. I need my guy mike Soroka back, he's my first five bread and butter. Like when he was going a couple of years ago that was my go to guy. But by the time we're done talking here there will only be three more games tonight. Cardinals marlins, pirates, cubs and rangers. Mariners. What are you seeing here that excites you the most. Yeah one total on one side. The first five under in the marlins Cardinals game I think is interesting. I projected that total closer to 3.4. I gotta juice under four last night actually still like it at 3.5 of plus money if you could get closer to plus 1 10. I still think that's worth delving into him high on Pablo Lopez and I think Jordan hicks velocity should carry him pretty far in the rotation as far as the side goes. Texas is a team that I love to bet tonight against Seattle now at current levels the prices dropped almost 20 cents from the overnight lines down from plus 1 32 plus 1 10. I projected it around plus 1 11 so I wouldn't really take below plus 1 15 on texas but the starting pitching matchup is pretty equal in my eyes. Marco. Gonzales is soft tossing lefty taylor. Hearn a hard tossing lefty both projecting the high force for er is so texas really just comes down to a home field advantage and slightly defense for Seattle otherwise I basically see this game as a coin flip. All right, thank you. Sean. That is Sean Zarella, senior writer at Action Network and co host of the MLB podcast payoff pitch that's available wherever you get your podcasts, by the way.