Brad Rubin, sector manager for Specialty Crops within Wells Fargo's Industry Advisory Group food and agribusiness unit, joined Cheddar News to discuss what factors are driving prices up for Thanksgiving.

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What's Driving Higher Thanksgiving Costs

All right. Well, the latest way that inflation is hitting Americans. Thanksgiving dinner costs are up and the supply and size of Turkeys are down holiday meals on track to cost 20% more turns out this year than last year? According to a new survey from American Farm Bureau Federation. And with a spread of about 12 dishes, the average extra cost per person at the table will clock in at just under $6.50. So joining me now is brad Rubin sector manager for specialty crops within Wells Fargo's Food and agribusiness Industry advisory group. Thank you so much for joining huge topic of course with thanksgiving already a week from today. So what effect is inflation having on dinner and the celebration this year? Essentially what's happening is there's been a few different things that have hit the markets. So we have avian bird flu. That has basically restricted the amount of birds that are hitting the market. That has driven the cost of birds up. We have had adverse weather conditions and some climate patterns that have impacted fruits and vegetables. So white potatoes and cranberries, for example are also up in price. The the real key is that there are value out. There is value out there and there's definitely ways for for americans to find deals in the stores, deals, deals, deals. That's what we love maybe shopping early is It's some good advice Brad or at least shopping for the right price. Um I would suggest for the right price. Yes, I would suggest your viewers. Well, Turkey prices there up around 28%. I mean, that's eye popping this year. What are the factors behind the rise in the price of Turkey? Well, the rise of turkey has been the avian bird flu. So it's it's basically wiped out about eight million birds and its shortened supply. So essentially what's happened is the market has responded by raising prices. Yeah, yeah, it is pretty significant. And I know it's impacted some other food costs as well. But I'm just curious if you think this trend will continue even into christmas in the new year, when when might we start to see some actual relief at the supermarket? Yeah, I mean, it's really hard to say it's hard to predict the future right now in the current market, it's definitely an impact. Um long term, I think as long as, you know, we get climate patterns under control, which we can't predict. Um, and you know, we can find a, find a cure for the avian bird flu. You know, americans are gonna have plenty of turkey to eat. So, uh, for right now this is the current market and who knows what the future holds. So, I know outside of just the inflationary impact, whether other forces, as we've been discussing here brad, as you've been mentioning, they've been affecting costs this year. For sure. And so I'm just curious if you are worried by this trend, if you think it is a trend that could pop up again and persist in the future? Well I'm not terribly worried. I think it's a near term problem. Um You know again caused by you know this myriad of events that sort of happened this holiday season uh long term and outlook wise I think you know as long as we get good weather we get strong snowpack we can our farmers have you know water to grow. I think we're gonna be in good shape then I think food costs will come. Mhm. Okay. So is there more value you think in dining out this year? That's another factor that people have to consider does take time to to prep a lot of time to prep the turkey cleanup as well. What's the cost differential? Yeah I mean what we did was we looked at the C. P. I. Index from last november of this august and the information basically said that the cost of eating out has risen at a much lesser rate than the cost of dining in. And so for that reason going out to eat this thanksgiving year is actually a stronger value uh than years past. So what was once considered really a luxury to eat out during the holidays? Americans can find a much more affordable way to this year if they choose to do so. And I think it'll make a lot of happy people who don't have to do the cleanup afterward as well brad. So that always seems to be a factor. Thank you so much for joining that brad Rubin sector manager for specialty crops within Wells, Fargo's Food and agribusiness Industry Advisory Group.