Monmouth Director: Poll May Have Been 'Outlier', but Biden Still Riding on Name Recognition

Monmouth University Polling Institute admitted Wednesday that it's most recent Democratic primary poll appears to be an outlier.

The poll quickly gained attention when it was released Monday because the results were a far cry from previous polls done by both Monmouth and other polling organizations. Specifically, it showed the frontrunner, former Vice President Joe Biden, falling 13 percent to a statistical tie with Senators Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren.

"It occurs very infrequently, but every pollster who has been in this business a while recognizes that outliers happen. This appears to be one of those instances," Patrick Murray, director of the institute wrote in a statement on Wednesday.

The poll was notable because it was one of the final polls the Democratic Party used to determine which candidates will qualify to take the stage during the party's third debate in early September. Biden, Sanders, and Warren have already met the requirements.

On Tuesday, before Monmouth announced that the poll may not be the best indicator of public opinion, Murray told Cheddar that Democratic-leaning voters might be "second guessing" the former vice president.

"Voters are now searching for: who do I think is the best candidate for me, for the issues that I stand for, and also, for beating Donald Trump. Maybe they're second guessing Joe Biden," Murray said.

On Wednesday, after the poll was deemed an outlier, Murray issued a statement to Cheddar that still indicated his belief that Biden is largely finding success because of his name recognition.

"While the horse race results of our poll are different from other national polls, the underlying dynamics of the race remain that a large proportion of Biden's support is based on name recognition and perceptions of electability," he said. Murray added: "Voters are starting to tune in and may cast about. They could end up sticking with Biden in the end, but it remains a sign that his support is based on a different set of priorities than it is for voters who back other candidates."

The Monmouth poll released Monday was based on 298 registered voters who identified as Democrats or lean toward the Democratic party, with a +/- 5.7 percent point margin of error.

When asked about the poll on Tuesday, Biden's campaign team directed Cheddar to the polls done by Morning Consult and Emerson University Polling.

On Wednesday, another set of DNC-approved qualifying polls were released. Both the USA Today/Suffolk University poll and Quinnipiac University poll show Joe Biden in the lead at 32 percent with Warren and Sanders in second and third by significant margins.

Biden's Deputy Campaign Manager and Communications Director Kate Bedingfield told MSNBC Tuesday, "He is leading in the polls, to be clear."

More In Politics

What’s in the legislation to end the federal government shutdown

A legislative package to end the government shutdown appears on track. A handful of Senate Democrats joined with Republicans to advance the bill after what's become a deepening disruption of federal programs and services. But hurdles remain. Senators are hopeful they can pass the package as soon as Monday and send it to the House. What’s in and out of the bipartisan deal has drawn criticism and leaves few senators fully satisfied. The legislation includes funding for SNAP food aid and other programs while ensuring backpay for furloughed federal workers. But it fails to fund expiring health care subsidies Democrats have been fighting for, pushing that debate off for a vote next month.

Politics and the Price of Groceries: Snap Benefits Caught in the Shutdown Crosshairs

Sabrina Siddiqui, National Politics Reporter at The Wall Street Journal, joins to break down the SNAP funding delays and the human cost of the ongoing shutdown.

Conservative Supreme Court justices appear skeptical of tariffs

Arguments at the Supreme Court have concluded for the day as the justices consider President Donald Trump's sweeping unilateral tariffs in a trillion-dollar test of executive power.

The Supreme Court will weigh arguments on tariffs this weeek

For President Donald Trump, tariffs — or the threat of them — can bend nations to his will.

Trump cuts tariffs on China after meeting Xi in South Korea

President Donald Trump said he has decided to lower his combined tariff rates on imports of Chinese goods to 47% after talks with Chinese leader Xi Jinping on curbing fentanyl trafficking.

Federal Reserve cuts key rate as shutdown clouds economic outlook

The Federal Reserve cut its key interest rate Wednesday for a second time this year as it seeks to shore up economic growth and hiring even as inflation stays elevated. The move comes amid a fraught time for the central bank, with hiring sluggish and yet inflation stuck above the Fed’s 2% target. Compounding its challenges, the central bank is navigating without much of the economic data it typically relies on from the government. The Fed has signaled it may reduce its key rate again in December but the data drought raises the uncertainty around its next moves. Fed Chair Jerome Powell told reporters that there were “strongly differing views” at the central bank's policy meeting about to proceed going forward.

Load More