Former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Joel Rubin joins Cheddar News to talk about the rising tensions between Russia and Ukraine.

Cheddar Politics

 Nato Secretary General Says No Signs of Russian De-Escalation

we have heard the signs from Moscow about readiness to continue diplomatic efforts. But so far we have not seen any de escalation on the ground. On the contrary, it appears that Russia continues the military build up. That was the NATO secretary general saying it appears Russia is continuing its military build up on the border of Ukraine. Russia claimed it's withdrawing some of its troops from the Ukrainian border after completing training drills. But President biden says an invasion is still possible for more on this. We're joined now by Joel Rubin, former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Welcome to the joe the show, Joel and so good to see you now. A spokesman for Russia's Defense minister saying that troops from some districts have become too really return to their home bases. Ukraine's foreign minister though, expressed some skepticism, saying that he will believe it when he sees it. How much longer will we be on the toe on our own toes with these de escalation talks, Joel, Ariel, it's great to be with you. And it does seem like this is an ongoing interminable dynamic where the Russians are threatening Ukraine saying they don't want to invade, building up forces, saying the forces are coming back closer to home while they're not. And I think Russia is he's happy to keep this pressure on, Happy to keep people guessing, happy to be the center of attention. Vladimir Putin relishes the idea that he is a leader, a player on the global stage. So the incentives for him to back off are very low right now. Of course, the incentives for him and the downsides that is for him to invade are also very high. And so uh we're going to be on this Tinderbox for some time it appears. And many world leaders were really hoping for some form of de escalation. But Russia says that these major military drills will just continue near Ukraine. I mean, what's Russia's strategy here, you mentioned, kind of staying in the spotlight? Yeah, Ariel, their strategy has seemed to have a couple of dynamics to it. The core one being they want to put pressure on Ukraine to publicly state that they will not even seek NATO membership to in a sense of pledge fealty to Moscow. Uh And also of course Moscow, Russia uh does control a significant chunk of Eastern Ukraine. And so the Russians are looking potentially to an extent that annex that territory fully. The Russian parliament passed legislation towards that effect just yesterday. So the Russians that they seem to be wanting concessions and are using their military to extract that. But what they're doing paradoxically, is actually strengthening the United States with our relationship with our NATO allies, strengthening our relationship with the european countries who have looked to us for self defense. And while Russia says they want a weaker NATO, they're actually making it stronger. Now, according to us estimates, Russia has amassed over 100 and 30,000 troops near Ukraine's border in the most recent weeks. Now, is this a sufficient number of troops for an actual invasion. It's a sufficient number of troops for a quick invasion certainly. But to hold a country the size of Ukraine not so much. And so there are fears that they would try to go straight to Kiev and to to decapitate the government there. But the Ukrainians are not a soft country at this stage. 78 years ago, they didn't have much of the military today. They do the United States, we have supplied over a billion dollars of military aid, A nearly 700 million in the past year. We've conducted significant training with Ukraine. So, Ukrainians are gearing up for a protracted fight with the Russians and I don't think people in Russia understand quite yet what the cost could be, they would see significant costs not just militarily but as well because of punishing sanctions, they would feel it in Moscow and across Russia in a way that they have not yet felt. So it's a military to make an action and insertion, but to hold it and dominate. That's a whole other story. Now we've been really kind of back and forth with learning about what's happening between Russia and Ukraine and kind of standing on the sidelines hearing what's happening next. I mean, do you think this is going to continue for months on end or you think there's going to be an end in sight to this. Whether they invade or not. Well, it's been ongoing since october and the biden administration early on in october stood up. What they call a tiger team to look at how to deal with Russia from the whole of government approach. And so now it's been several months already. There's no reason to think that Russia can't hold on much longer but it will be harder into the spring physically. Rolling tanks in the mud is not not an ideal outcome. The tanks on the ground there now it's frozen. So there is a window for an invasion. So this can't go on for months on end. It doesn't appear physically. And I think we are getting closer to the time where Vladimir Putin is going to have to decide is there an off ramp that he will take the United States is trying to provide him with off ramps publicly calling for diplomacy. Will there be a face saving way for him to pull back or will he feel that he's taken this far and he must invade. Which of course could be calamitous for Ukraine and for Russia and for europe as well, I think we are nearing that decision point. And one last question while I still have you Joel uh Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to meet with the Belarusian leader to really discuss european security and bilateral relations? I mean what do you think we can expect from this meeting at this tense point. More failte to Russia from belarus but Russia is severely isolated from this experience in the United States. What what we have seen the biden administration do is cultivate international opinion in a way that has put Russia on the defensive. We are working with our allies. We are winning the information war. The United States is in terms of identifying the problem which is a potential invasion. So Russia doesn't have many friends Belarus. It's subcontracted its support to to china. There aren't many countries willing to stand with Russia. So very small ally but really not one that can make a significant difference for Russia on the world stage. Excellent insight as always. Thanks Joel Rubin, former Deputy Assistant Secretary of the State. Thank you so much for joining us today.