New York Governor Andrew Cuomo said this morning that the expected peak of infection is 45 days out, based on a hospitalization rate of between 15 to 19 percent.
"The expected peak is around 45 days," he said during a press briefing. "That can be plus or minus, depending on what we do."
At that point, between 55,000-110,000 hospital beds will be required to meet the need, he said.
"That, my friends, is the problem that we have been talking about since we began this exercise," Cuomo said. "You take the 55,000 to 110,000 hospital beds. You compare it to a capacity of 53,000 beds, and you understand the challenge."
A total of 19,000 to 37,000 intensive care unit beds could be necessary as well.
"It's clear we can't manage that flow," he said. "How do you reduce the flow? You reduce the spread. How do you reduce the spread? You close down more interaction among people."
The governor said the best way to address the incoming load of patients is to "flatten the curve" by continuing to halt the spread of the infection through quarantines and closings, such as those announced Monday shutting down gyms, restaurants, and bars,
"It's possible that we'll be doing more dramatic closings," Cuomo said.
He pointed to the case of Italy, which has closed all businesses but "essential" grocery stores and pharmacies.
"We're not there yet, but I'm telling you we have to get down that rate of spread," he said.
Future closings will be statewide, he added, and "hopefully be done with our surrounding states."
A total of 10,000 people were tested in the state as of Tuesday, and the number of confirmed cases surpassed 1,300. Of those, 12 New Yorkers have died of the disease.