As expected, U.S. inflation woes are far from over. Prices rose 1.3 percent in June, before seasonal adjustment, and 9.1 percent year-over-year, according to the latest consumer price index report. That's the highest annual reading yet since 1981, and the highest monthly reading since 2005.
The report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics marks the first time that monthly inflation has been above 1 percent since March when the first shockwaves of the Russian invasion of Ukraine hit the global economy. More than three months later, the energy crisis stemming from the conflict continues.
Higher energy prices contributed nearly half of the monthly increase on their own, with energy prices overall rising 7.5 percent, compared to 3.9 percent in May. Energy commodities rose 10.4 percent, and gasoline specifically rose 11.2 percent.
While Americans may have noticed that the price of gasoline actually went down in recent weeks, it was on the rise through much of June, and that's what is visible in the data today.
The national average price was $4.63 per gallon as of Wednesday, according to AAA. That's down 38 cents from a month ago when prices were well above $5 per gallon in some parts of the country.
AAA also pointed out that prices appear to be dropping despite rising demand.
"Usually, more people buying gas would lead to higher pump prices," said AAA spokesperson Andrew Gross. "But the price for oil, the main ingredient in gasoline, has fallen and is hovering around $100 a barrel. Less expensive oil usually means less expensive gas."
Outside of energy, prices continue to increase, but less drastically. Core inflation, which cuts out volatile food and energy costs, was up 0.7 percent in June, compared to 0.6 percent in May.
In addition, price increases for new and used cars fell from 1.0 and 1.8 percent respectively to 0.7 and 1.6 percent, respectively.
Food prices, meanwhile, were up 1 percent in June, which is a slower rise than the 1.2 percent in May, for a year-over-year jump of 10.4 percent. Most major food and beverage categories went up, except for the index for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs, which fell 0.4 percent in June, thanks specifically to a decline in beef and pork.
The higher headline and core numbers squash the hopes of some economists who predicted that this report would show inflation beginning to moderate.
"Peak inflation will have to wait," said Rusty Vanneman, chief investment strategist at Orion Advisor Solutions, in an email. "While there are some hopeful signs that we're getting close to the peak in the inflation growth rate, such as lower commodity prices, we likely won't see the actual peak for months, if not until early next year."
There is also already speculation trickling in about what this means for the Federal Reserve's plan to continue hiking its benchmark interest rate until inflation is tamed.
"No early summer vacation for Jerome Powell," said David Russell, vice president of market intelligence at TradeStation Group, in an email. "A big risk for stocks now is how much the inflationary trends hit results and outlooks this earnings season. Wall Street is already expecting the slowest profit growth since late 2020, so the mood could remain pretty grim with results due in the coming weeks."
The Fed's next meeting is just two weeks away on July 27.
