Stocks slipped again Thursday as investors braced for more interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve, and the volatility is once again stirring up debates over whether the U.S. economy is headed for a recession.
"Our view right now is that for the next six months the U.S. economy should be okay," said Ahmed Riesgo, chief investment officer for financial services company Insigneo.
He said the strength of the January jobs report has put downward pressure on stocks because it showed resilience in the economy that many investors interpreted as a sign that more rate hikes were coming. Recent reports showing "sticky" inflation have had a similar effect.
These trends increase the odds of a recession, he added, because the uncertainty around inflation makes it more likely the Fed will make a policy mistake.
"Our base case is not a recession," he said. "But when you look a little bit further out over a 12 month period, I think the chances of a mild recession in the United States are very elevated."
He also cited recent comments from Fed officials as evidence for this theory. The nation's top bankers have signaled they are committed to bringing inflation down to 2 percent annually, while also saying hitting that goal effectively requires inducing a recession.
American businesses that rely on Chinese goods are reacting with muted relief after the U.S. and China agreed to pause their exorbitant tariffs on each other’s products for 90 days. Many companies delayed or canceled orders after President Donald Trump last month put a 145% tariff on items made in China. Importers still face relatively high tariffs, however, as well as uncertainty over what will happen in the coming weeks and months. The temporary truce was announced as retailers and their suppliers are looking to finalize their plans and orders for the holiday shopping season. They’re concerned a mad scramble to get goods onto ships will lead to bottlenecks and increased shipping costs.
Shopping expert Trae Bodge discusses how talks between the U.S. and China is good news for now, but uncertainty remains for back-to-school and the holidays.
Jake Traylor, White House reporter at Politico, joins Cheddar to discuss how Trump is aiming to lower drug prices and how it differs from Biden's approach.
Sheryl Palmer, CEO of Taylor Morrison, talks tariff uncertainty, being a female leader in a male dominated industry and what homebuyers need to know. Watch!
