Stocks closed near session highs Thursday as the major indexes, namely the S&P 500, begin to slowly recover from recent lows. That index in particular marking a four-day winning streak, along with the Nasdaq. Investors are still keeping an eye on recession risks, the Federal Reserve's moves to fight inflation, as well as the June jobs report, out tomorrow. Tammy Trenta, Founder & CEO of Family Financial LLC, joins Closing Bell to discuss today's close, recession risks, and more. 

Closing Bell

Stocks Closed Near Session Highs as Investors Awaited June Jobs Report

turning back to those major averages joining us now? Tammy Trenta founder and ceo of family financial LLC tammy. Welcome. Welcome your thoughts on today's close? Well, it's nice to have a good day. It's been a pretty rough first half of the year. And I think sometimes the fear is worse than the thing itself, You know, I think we're all ready to just move on and get over with it already. So yeah, it's been a been an interesting day, but it doesn't give me a whole lot of confidence going forward. I still think the markets will be choppy as an aggressive Fed makes a soft landing much more challenging. So let's turn to those Treasury yields the closely watched two when 10 year yield curves remain inverted. That's historically been a key recession indicator. As you will know, tammy walk us through this. Why could this be an indicator of a recession? What should investors be keeping an eye on? Well, when short term rates go up and long term rates are lower, there's no incentive to borrow money and and lock it up for a longer term. And so that is definitely a sign that we are going into a recession. It is not uh a foregone conclusion. We've seen this before. Um a partial explanation of it, however, is that we have injected so much money into the economy because of the COVID relief and all of the other types of aid packages. So, um you know, the 30 year treasury. It could be argued that it's artificially deflated because of all that stimulus. Do you think we'll enter a recession sometime this year, would it likely be shallow as some market watchers have been saying for some weeks now, Thank you. Yeah, I mean, I don't, there's such, so many mixed signals. Um You know, you've got the yield curve inverting. Um M and A deals have been falling through because the debt financing has become cost prohibitive with increasing rates. Housing prices have already leveled out and rents are increasing. But on the other hand, consumer spending is still high even in the face of increased gas prices inflated airfare costs. Um the job market is still strong and you know what I'm curious about is what work looks like going forward. Um, you know, there's a lot of resistance to returning to the office and how will companies handle that? I mean right now it's sort of an employee's market. So what happens when companies begin to trim expenses and will employees be willing to return to the office? You know, I think that we have some upcoming, uh, good pieces of information. You've got earnings season upon us, which will give us an indication of the strength of the capital markets and we expect GDP numbers by the end of the month. GDP numbers are negative then by default. We're in a recession. So, um, you know, I think it was important that the Fed sent a strong message in june indicating then rights, that rates may rise, another 2% points before your end, Um It's important to set expectations and manage that. Um You know, because I think if if conditions do improve, then they always have the right to adjust accordingly. The Federal Reserve, as we talk about a lot on this network and, you know, last month raising rates 75 basis points, A central bank walks a tight rope as it tries to avoid a recession. Do you think the Fed will be able to pull this off and as the off with the highly desired soft landing? Okay, well, I'm not optimistic. Um You know, as a firm, we're prepared for it and you know, we've already been harvesting losses and making rebalancing trades so when the market does recover whatever that is, um you know, our clients will recover more quickly. The fight also sent a strong signal last month it may raise rates another 2% points before the year end. Do you think that's likely tammy? I do. We'll get the june jobs report tomorrow. What are you expecting? What factors are you watching for? Um I think that jobless claims will be up. Um But not enough to significantly move the market. We've already seen layoffs in the tech industry, it hasn't really filtered into, you know, the S and P companies. So, you know, I think we're a ways away and you know, like I said before, I feel like everybody's been worried about this for the last six months and it would just be nice to have it happen and get it behind us so we can start on the road to recovery. Alright, fair enough. Tammy. Trento founder and Ceo Family Financial, LLC. Thank you so much tammy.