Alex Ward, National Security Reporter at Politico, joined Wake Up With Cheddar to discuss the latest in a looming international threat as Russia continues aggression against Ukraine, in defiance of Western nations.

Wake Up With Cheddar

Tension Ramps Up Between Russia and West Over Ukraine Aggression

joining me now to discuss this is Alex Ward, national security reporter at politico, Alex, thank you so much for joining us. We're gonna jump right in that call involved french President Emmanuel Macron and UK Prime Minister Boris johnson. Now, what does this say about the urgency of the situation and what was discussed? Well, it says that, you know, the West is quite worried the U. S. And europe are really struggling to find ways to stop any of this from happening. Meaning in this being, of course, a Russian invasion of Ukraine. They were discussing basically, you know, what else can we do this, threat of sanctions? Can they coordinate on sanctions? Can they agree on a way forward? Because there's still some uncertainty about what the U. S. Any you will do together should even one singular Russian troop go over the border of Ukraine. So this is still very much coordination call, but it also very much is okay, what else do we have to offer here? What else could we possibly do to stave off the worst from happening? I think the world wants to know right now that if you will the U. S. Be responsible if Russia attacks Ukraine? And even the larger picture, like could this lead to World War Three at some point. I mean, you know, there's been this tension that's been escalating for so long here and you know, they're really going toe to toe at this point, let's calm down. Talk of World War Three for the moment, I mean, it's not impossible, of course, that there is a large land war in europe within a couple of weeks. I mean that is sort of what we're facing here. But there is at the moment no indication that the U. S. Wants to send in troops that a bunch of Europeans want to send in troops to Ukraine. All of the talk at the moment is how do we stop Russia from actually launching this war? But if the war is launched, you know, as we've seen in past crises in europe, you know, there really isn't much of a global desire to get militarily involved and escalate the crisis. So I think you know if you're worried about World War Three, I feel you can probably calm down a little bit. Um However that's not to say that there won't be you know, massive blood and suffering. If this were to turn into a large land war in eastern europe in an effort to de escalate some of this tension, there's been a string of meetings between Russia and the west yet there have been no breakthroughs really at this point. No significant breakthroughs. Would you say that diplomacy is kind of gone at this point? I wouldn't say it's gone, but it's on its last legs and we have seen repeated attempts by the U. S. And the european allies to try to convince Russia that hey you don't want to go this military route, you want to make a deal with us. Um but it doesn't look like it's going to happen. And mostly that seems like the Kremlin's fault because the Kremlin is making asks of the U. S. And europe that it clearly doesn't want to give namely to close the NATO open door policy uh and to basically make it so that the U. S. Stops conducting certain exercises in Eastern europe that Russia sees as provocative, but that really does seem more like window dressing by Russia. And the fact that it it just doesn't like that key over the many years has become more pro Western. And so this is sort of in Putin's mind perhaps his last ditch effort to stop a country that he feels in his orbit from moving away from that Russian influence on NATO do NATO allies really agree as to how far they will go to defend Ukraine. It's unclear at this point. I mean, you've heard even President biden say you know, there isn't a ton of unity on what exactly will be done should Russia invade right? He the infamous minor incursion comment if we stripped that away a bit, what he was really saying is look if there is a full blown, you know invasion of Ukraine where the Russians send in the majority of their hundreds of you know the 100,000 plus troops then you know there is some unanimity on what to do the nuclear option let's say. But if sanctions will be employed if there is a smaller type of encouragement there's cyber attacks. If they're only a few 1000 troops go in, then you know, the U. S. Has resolved seems clear right that they will want to push for the for the large package. But the Europeans might disagree. Um and they might think hey they don't want to necessarily be involved in the very heavy sanctions set which of course would also impact them. And frankly the global economy. And we're already seeing Germany for example, not really willing to play ball with sending weapons out to eastern europe. They blocked Estonia from sending german wait what made weapons that were in Estonia? So there clearly is some discord, I think there's more unity than disunity, but that you know that will matter. Well of course if and when the moment comes. And one last question with you Alex now if Russia does invade Ukraine, who is going to be on their side, what allies do they have in this matter? I mean I think that you will still see some at least rhetorical and some financial and military assistance support from the US and NATO in the same way that they have all sided with Ukraine really since the Crimea annexation. Um and then you've seen some NATO solidarity with Georgia ever since the 2008 war. But I would not expect any of these nations to really send in troops to fight alongside the Ukrainian, there might be some training, there might be some military assistance. There might be some other forms of support. But to say that, you know, a bunch of NATO countries in the United States included will go in and fight shoulder to shoulder with Ukrainian troops against Russians. That seems an extremely unlikely prospect at this point. Excellent insight there. Thanks to Alex Ward, national security reporter at Political. Thank you for joining us this morning.