Ursula Perano, politics reporter at the Daily Beast, joins Cheddar Politics to discuss the wave of 30 House Democrats retiring or not seeking re-election in November.

Cheddar Politics

Wave of Democratic Retirements Paints Grim Picture for Midterms

and welcome back everyone to gender politics side baker machado in new york new york congresswoman Kathleen Rice this week became the latest house democrat to announce that she's not going to seek re election in november. Now Rice raises the count of incumbent democrats not running to 30 compared to just 13 republicans. This is the largest number for democrats retiring since the 1992 election. That was when 41 democrats walked away from their seats. Now, the disparity between the parties further illustrates how difficult it will be for democrats to hold onto their majority in the midterms. So joining us now to break this all down is Ursula Parayno politics reporter over at the Daily Beast. Ursula, Good to see you as always. So what do you sort of glean from this? Given the fact that a lot of these individuals are not seeking higher office, they're just getting out of dodge. To me that says that there's a serious lack of confidence among house Democrats about their ability to win next year or this year in the midterm elections. They are expecting to lose power. That is the general understanding in Washington, is that Democrats, there is a widespread understanding that house Democrats are not likely to retain power in 2022. And for folks that may have wanted to run for higher office, Perhaps a Senate seat, perhaps a gubernatorial seat, that does tend to be a decision they would have needed to make a year ago and a year ago, their prospects in 2022 were sort of more up in the air, a little more rosy if there were folks among this crop of 30 that are now retiring or not seeking re election, that we're looking for higher office. They missed their window. You usually need to have announced that Perhaps back in spring 2021, Tim Ryan, a house Democrat who is now running for the Senate, that's where and when he announced. So the timing is off and by the time they realized the house doesn't look like it's going to be a fun place for them next year. Uh, they don't really have much of an option but to simply not run for re election. By the way, a lot of these individuals, this number could go up. I mean, a lot of the filing deadlines for a lot of these states still have not come up. Do you expect the number to be even higher than 30 at the end of the day? With primaries approaching? I do think some democrats have to start making a political calculus of they have to have already gotten out if they want to give folks in their district a good chance to run. But in Italy this number could still keep getting higher. You know, the outlook for democrats does not seem to be getting rosier BBB is stalled. A lot of their priorities Really are not looking like they're going to get through. And when we talk to Democrats on the hill democratic strategist, there is a lack of confidence. So yeah, I think we can expect to continue to see this number go up, but in Italy as we get close to your primaries, I think the folks who are sticking in are going to be sticking in for the long haul. Well, a lot of the individuals who are retiring, some of them are coming from competitive seats. Either seats that maybe Donald Trump won in 2020 or either way that their district is incredibly competitive. How much of that does it sort of elevate republicans potentially getting those seats because these are competitive districts here. Yeah, it definitely elevates the Republicans advantage in those races. And lately when you have an incumbent Democrat, especially some of these ones who have been in office for 10, 20 years, retiring, that is the Democrat who has proven they can win that district when they choose to not run for reelection that district. As far as Democrats go, loses that advantage, you're looking at an open primary, you don't know what the democratic primary winner is going to look like. You don't know if they're going to be competitive. And of course, in a lot of these districts, to part of the calculus is going to be redistricting, which is being wrapped up or has been wrapped up in several states for some of these members that are retiring, they have lost the Democratic advantage in their district. They have gone from somewhat safe or only moderately competitive Democratic seats to places where republicans are really feeling more enthusiastic and cozier about their chances this year. Well, I on the flip side though, some of these members, like Kathleen Rice is a perfect example. Her district likely still will end up in hands of democrats after this next election, but she's obviously viewed as more of a moderate here. What are the chances? Her district then becomes a boom for progressives, that more of these districts but can continue to get more polarized? I guess every election cycle, given the fact that a lot of these, you know, these districts biden won by large numbers here. That's absolutely part of it too. When you're looking at some of the safer districts, I would also point out, for example, mike Doyle in pennsylvania when he retired, he has a progressive hopping in the race. There are plenty across the country for progressives. When there are these open primaries, they see it as a chance to make their whole typical bid of, we need renewed leadership, we need somebody younger, we need people who are more diverse to be representing us in Congress, but they get to avoid the tricky politics of actually primary and incumbent, which of course has been something progressives haven't necessarily shied away from, but it's more expensive, It's more tiresome. You know, it's not necessarily fun to do. And so for progressives who are looking for an opportunity to hop in the race when they see these safe Democratic seats open up, that is a chance for them to go in and just play it out as an open primary, like any other seat. Now, we know history tens and moments like this, the opposition party likely wins. You know, I think that since the 19 2000 wins, wins, the republicans actually held onto the House during the bush years, That's sort of the outlier in all of this. But a lot of democrats, I talked to say, look, if the economy starts to turn around in terms of the inflation numbers, the gerrymandering redistricting numbers weren't as bad as they thought. A lot of democrats seem to be mildly optimistic that they might be able to hold onto the House here. How optimistic are you that democrats will be able to do that? I think the factory for Democrats in 2022 are going to be what they get done in these next few months. They immediately need wins to campaign on some folks, when you talk to them, they say there have been policy wins, they talk about the American rescue plan, the bipartisan infrastructure bill, but for Democrats that we're expecting sort of transformative change when they had the house, the Senate and the presidency. A lot of folks don't expect that to be enough to really encourage voters to go out and be enthusiastic and turn out of the rates they need this midterm, especially given the fact that republicans typically have higher midterm turnout than democrats anyways. So immediately they need some sort of, or at least Democratic strategists essentially say they need some sort of transformative policy, They need something big, something exciting. And there are opportunities for that. Let's go this nomination, if they could get some sort of climate back version of BBB through things like that. But when they're stuck constantly doing things like today, for example, you know, simply funding the government, folks don't believe that's the type of thing that's going to get voters excited for democrats. This november. Yeah. The only time they, you know, they'd be excited is if the government ran out of money and didn't get funded. So you're absolutely right there, Ursula, Parayno, politics reporter over the Daily Beast. Always good to have you here. Ursula, thanks so much.