The Supreme Court's decision to overturn Roe v. Wade set off a wave of fiery protests across the country, prompting Democrats to tap into that anger to motivate voters for the midterms. While Democrats still have a tough fight ahead, Republicans are also concerned the ruling could take attention away from inflation and the economy, two low-polling topics for President Biden. Charlie Cook, a political analyst for the National Journal and founder of the Cook Political Report, breaks down how the decision might reshape the November elections.

Opening Bell

Charlie Cook on What  Supreme Court Abortion Decision Means for Midterms

here to discuss the political fallout, charlie Cook, political analyst for the National Journal and founder of the Cook Political Report charlie, thank you so much for joining us this morning. We saw fiery protests across the country this weekend in response to the overturning of roe V wade. Do you think this will motivate voters to come out for the midterms? Well, that's the key question asia because the reason the party in the White House usually loses seats in midterm elections is usually there. That party, the president's party is less motivated than the out party is. Um and so and there is a big, big gap between Republican motivation right now and democratic motivation. So democrats desperately want the reversal of roe V wade or maybe some of the gun issues and decisions or september 6th hearings to try to refocus the election on what they say is republican excesses as opposed to where the state and direction of the economy and President biden's approval ratings which are very low. So Parties always try to define the election in the best possible terms. And clearly Democrats would want it to turn onto abortion guns in January 6? Yeah. And democrats are already seizing on this opportunity to highlight the importance of voting in midterm elections. Um do you think this is a smart strategy on the part of democrats to put reproductive rights really at the center of the conversation for midterms, especially as you mentioned approval ratings for the president and also the economy right now, remember the old joke about the woman was asked by a friend House her husband. and she said compared to what um, I I think for abortion rights, that would clearly be a better topic for democrats than say inflation or the economy or you know, did the, did the president respond quickly enough? So clearly it is a better, more favorable Battleground. But and the thing is if President Biden had a 50% job approval rating instead of 39, 41 and the economy was doing fine, I think you could make a really good argument that abortion rights that guns, that January six could motivate and level the playing field in terms of turnout. But when you're looking at at 40 year high inflation and, you know, in the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index, the lowest on record. And they started in 1966. That's really hard to change the venue of the election uh, to cultural issues when people are really afraid about apprehensive about their their future there, the economy. And so it's it's a challenge. I think democrats are doing the right thing trying to do it. And the question is, can they make that work? Yeah. Where do you think there are vulnerabilities in this strategy? Because something I've already seen emerged this weekend is a lot of criticism from the left, from democrats who are concerned about this leadership moving forward and really focusing not only on november, but also on what can be done now in terms of overturning roe v wade moving forward, wondering your thoughts there? Well, I mean, the thing is I can understand why progressives think that way, but nothing nothing of any importance is going to happen between now and november and they need to worry about, I think the consequences of the Senate going from 50 50 right now with Vice President Harris breaking the tie with democrats dropping to 49 48 47 46 47 46 seats. That's that's That would be a big drop and dropping, say 30 40 seats in the House Representatives. That is a very immediate threat And that they could be in a really bad position coming out of this election. So um you know, it's great to talk to think about the long term, but um Democrats are in a hole right now and they've got to figure out how to get out of that hole and get out of it between now and November eight and that's gonna be a real challenge given, you know, the president's got the lowest approval rating since, well tied with trump for the lowest in post World War Two history. So it's hard to change that. Um and so they've got they've got a real challenge on their hands. Yeah, another progressive mindset at this point is also to elect new officials, really new blood that is willing to make some of these changes in terms of roe V wade? How do you think that maybe also takes away some steam from the solidarity and the united front for democrats heading into these midterms, I think a lot of these younger progresses on Capitol Hill. Um, a lot of them have never been in a minority party before and particularly in the house representatives where if you're in the minority party, you barely even have a vote. And um, you know, I think when you look at some of these senate races where democrats have four incredibly vulnerable incumbent senators up Mark kelly in Arizona Raphael Warnock in Georgia, uh, Catherine Catherine Cortez masto in Nevada Maggie Hassan in new Hampshire. Uh, you you could conceivably see all four of those losing and frankly right now, I think the democrats only have a, you know, more or less a 50 50 shot in one republican seat in pennsylvania. So, um, this these consequences are, are, are really grave and their immediate and um forget, you know, changing, you know, codifying the abortion rights. I mean they're going to have legislation coming through that would be just even worse than what they're fighting right now. And, and so I think sometimes I think they need a little bit of a reality check. Really interesting to get that perspective. I want to flip things over to republican side. As you mentioned, this can be seen as a really big strategy for republicans. Um, but also, even though it is seen overturning roe v wade as a conservative win at the same time, it does detract from some of those focus points when we talk about inflation and the economy, how might this undermine Republican intentions for this midterm? Well, there's certainly some Republican nervousness. I mean that as long as this election is about biden and the economy, republicans were going to do great and so to the extent that there's any opportunity for it to go to something else that obviously makes them nervous, I want to see some more data in the next week to see whether that seems to be happening. I'm a little skeptical, but um you know, I think these issues, whether it's abortion guns, et cetera, I think they're gonna bite republicans on the rear end sooner or later, but I think I'd be more likely to put my money on later and meaning like 2025 or six or seven where it can go to those issues because once the economy starts getting back some direction towards normalcy, but it's really hard to get these issues front and center um when uh people, regardless of what state they're in, are worried about the are being hurt by inflation and the direction of the economy and as it is, you know, with abortion and not to dismiss the magnitude of this, but but half the states are not going to have any changes whatsoever. Um but 100% are gonna are are hit by inflation and that just that's more of a top of mind concern for more voters, no matter even though so many people voting rights advocates feel so intensely about their issue. Of of course they do. And if you had to guess, where else do you think republicans steer the conversation to work in their favor for midterms? Especially when we think about obviously not trying to poach votes from those that are very far left leaning or progressive on the Democratic side, but maybe those undecided voters somewhere in the middle. Yeah, independents are pretty fickle people. They don't tend to have a coherent political philosophy and they tend to get buyer's remorse. And that's one reason why they typically tilt away from the party in power, because, you know, for whatever, whatever they thought a new president would be or a new governing party would be, uh they tend to be disappointed that it's not everything they wanted it to be. And so they tend to break and right now, President President biden's job approval rating while yes, it's 85% among democrats, but it's only 36% among independents in the last gallup poll. And, you know, it's 3% among republicans, but uh independence is where Is where the Democrats are having, it's about getting their people out motivating the Democratic base, but it's also about persuading that 10% that are the true independence and getting them on board and a 30, 36% job approval rating for the present among independents is um, you know, you're you're starting off in a hole. Yeah, charlie. I just want to get one more question in, as someone who specializes with election forecast. You did a little bit of this, But how do you foresee the midterm election shaping up at this point? Um, I I think it's gonna be real, real bad for democrats, to be perfectly honest. It's it's it's the it it may not be biblical because there are fewer competitive congressional districts now than there used to be. And so some of the most horrific midterm elections, we've seen of, you know, 50 60 seat losses. That's really pretty unlikely. And it's hard to see democrats move more than four in the Senate, but we've seen, you know, we've seen midterms and not too distant past with numbers much, you know, in those range, those big ranges. And I don't think it's gonna be that bad. But the probability of democrats losing both their majorities is real. Real, real hot. All right, charlie. Cook, political analyst for The National Journal and Founder of The Cook Political Report. Thanks so much for joining us with that perspective