As fears continue to grow about a potential recession, so do fears about the impact it could have on the job market.  Aside from when the pandemic was at its peak, people who started working in the past 12 years have been able to benefit from a hot job market where employees have mostly had the bargaining power; however, rising inflation and recession concerns are already causing the tables to turn, as layoffs and job freezes have been recently announced across several industries.  Data released Thursday found more jobs were added in June than expected, but concerns remain about the future of job security and availability.  Rebecca Ryan, economist, futurist and founder of Next Generation Consulting, joins Cheddar News' Closing Bell to discuss.

Closing Bell

Young Workers Face Uniquely Challenging Job Market Due to Recession Fears

and as fears continue to rise about a potential recession, so do fears about the impact it could have on the job market Aside from when the pandemic was at its peak, people who started working in the past 12 years have been able to benefit from a hot job market where employees have mostly had bargaining power. but rising inflation and recession concerns are already causing the tables to turn as layoffs and job breezes have become recently announced across several industries. And although more jobs were added in june than expected concerns remain about the future of job security and availability joining us now Rebecca Ryan economist and futurist at at futurist and founder of Next Generation, consulting a forecasting consulting firm, thank you so much for joining us. Do you believe a recession is inevitable? And if so what does that mean for people looking to enter the job market right now or even within the next year? Hi Asia um I do not believe that we are, it's inevitable that we're heading into a recession and I feel like the wind is still in the sails of young people who are looking for their first or possibly their second or third job. That's good to hear because I think it's sometimes worth a reminder, it's not the base case situation, especially as we have all of these concerns. Um and we know the last recession ended in mid-2009 with unemployment at 9.5%, about 2.5 times higher than what it is today. If a recession does happen, could unemployment levels reach that point again, I think there's a very slim possibility of us reaching those levels because we're not in the same situation, you know, there was a big structural problem that underlined the Great Recession of 2008, And we don't have those same structural issues in the economy today. We've got a situation where we turned out all the lights on the economy during Covid. And the truth is it takes a long time for the lights to come back up once we kind of re enter the room, interesting. And the pandemic, we know, led to the great resignation with a lot of people leaving due to job dissatisfaction. A number of other things. If a recession does lead to less job availability, how do you think workers need to reevaluate demands they have of their job of their workplace? We've heard from guests on the show that it's almost like the rules around negotiation are kind of changing. We mentioned the tables turning and the bargaining chips being less in the hands of maybe employees and more in the hands of employers who have insight as to what's to come ahead and if layoffs need to be put in place. You know, I think that first of all, for young people, it's really common that the last people hired are often the first to be let go during, during layoffs and if that happens, um, you know, kind of put, we have to put ourselves on notice. But what's interesting is during Covid it was older workers who were some of the first to be let go. So young professionals have seen a really amazing job market, you know, between the number of jobs that are available to jobs available for every one person looking. The number of remote jobs and the number of communities who are like paying people like come move to our community. I really do think that overall we're gonna continue to see a lot of good signs in the economy for young people who are job seekers. However good rules of career management continue to apply, do high quality work. It's not the number of people, you know, it's the number of people who know you right and then always be ready to have that second side hustle. We know that a lot of young people have applied for their employer identification number so that they can start their own LLC, they can have a side hustle or a side gig all of that applies. I actually think our next generation is one of the most recession proof generations because they've come up with a lot of instability. That's a lot of good information. And I think really worth noting that you believe the gig economy will be continuing moving forward, especially as we enter some volatility here, even though you do seem to have a more optimistic outlook than a lot of the guests that we've had on the show and even some of the billionaires who have put out statements recently, I'm thinking of Mark Zuckerberg, something I want to bring up with you because you do have good advice for new hires, people entering this um workforce right now is we're seeing a resurgence, an increase of opportunities or offers being withdrawn. Rescinded from a lot of these employers, particularly in certain spaces that are being hit hard like tech and in crypto, what is your advice for navigating that arena? Right. So you ideally you want a set of skills that is transferable, right? A highly transferable set of skills. And although the tech headlines, the layoffs in quarter one, quarter two got a lot of coverage, There were several 1000 layoffs and many of those happened at publicly traded companies. And what happened first, the leading indicator was when the stock market dropped because when the stock market drops at publicly traded companies, there's a lot of pressure to cut overhead and HR personnel costs a lot of money. So that's often the very first thing that will go. So if you are a young person today and you are employed, look at your own employer, are you publicly traded or are you not? If you're not at a publicly traded company, you might be in better shape or other people in your industry being laid off, That might also be an indicator. I think the important thing here is to not try to, you know, guess what's going to happen by looking at the news. It's kind of like looking at a weather app and trying to determine what your weather is outside. Just step out onto your front porch and figure out what it is. And if the economic weather in your industry is getting difficult or within your workplace is getting difficult, you might want to start that side hustle, you might want to start putting out your feelers, but don't like overreact. Don't spook yourself into a recessionary mindset, really appreciate that perspective. That's Rebecca Ryan economist and also founder of Next Generation consulting.