TJM Managing Director Reacts to Market Position After End-of-Week Turnaround

TJM managing director Timothy Anderson joined Cheddar News and provided a reaction to the stock market closing position after making a turnaround late in the week. He also talked about about the Fed's inflation gauge remaining highly elevated.

Closing Bell

Joining me now is Timothy Anderson managing director at TJM Investments. Timothy. Thanks for joining me down here on the floor of the Stock Exchange. It's so nice to be with you today and all of your viewers on Cheddar media. Absolutely. Ok. Well, let's talk about takeaways from the week. I did get the weekly numbers I see on the week, the S and P up 9/10 of a percent same for the dow the NASDAQ up 1.3%. What are the takeaways that we've seen from the market of late? Well, clearly this week, the market turned around from significant losses, Tuesday and Wednesday on Thursday where we had a big day and pretty much has brought the major averages into the green for the week and actually, possibly for the month. I think we did get the monthly numbers. Let's run through those. You're right. The S and P up 1.5% the dow up 2.5%. The NASDAQ basically flat underperforming. I think after some immediate pop that we saw in the wake of those two banking collapse collapses mid month, what should we be taking away? From these tech results. Well, clearly investors had a lot of anxiety coming in to this week over how big mega tech stocks were going to report. There's been a tremendous amount of banter from macro economists about the the ability of a recession later in the year. And people were looking for guidance from big cap tech to see if they were also very concerned about that or projecting that and their numbers were just very strong. And I think it's just part of the battle that the market has been in for the last 6 to 8 months where the top down macro economists keep talking about the inevitability of a recession. But the single stock analysts and the CFOS and finance people, individual companies are saying we just don't quite see that. It's interesting because I've had a lot of guests on my show, obviously, as you know, we cover the stock market close down here on the floor as we both work on the floor every single day. But a lot of them have said, you know, certain companies look good. We would be picking stocks right now. They've said this over the past few months versus perhaps investing in the indexes outright that there might be some winners and losers to coincide with your comment there. But let's talk about this inflation data, right? Because that's just the big topic that everyone is watching the inflation data that we got today pretty much in line what does that mean for the fed decision on tap next week? So we got the employment cost index report and the PCE numbers today, the most heavily watched inflation gauges for the fed. They are quarterly numbers and of course, we get year over year numbers to go along with that. Now, we, we see from these numbers that the private sector wage and salary costs are still going up at about maybe just below 5% annually ending for the 12 months that ended in March. That's about what we saw also for the 12 months ending in March a year ago. The one disparity we see between the core number, which would include exclude food and energy and the headline number, which would include food and energy is that the big spikes we saw in food and energy, which really started to fuel the inflation scenario that we began to see about a year and a half ago have subsided a little bit because while the headline number for inflation rose at about 4.64 point 8% the coin number only rose at about 4.2% but it's enough to where the fed is most likely going to hike rates next week. Yeah. And I think of course that CME tool indicating that that is the market expectation. So we've been this range, right? Even though we had a decent week and generally a positive month, what's going to cause us to break out of this range one way or the other. Well, on the upside, we would have to start to get some consensus that the FED is very likely to engineer a soft landing or to have a recession that is very mild for you and not do significant damage to the economy. Now, if the market were to break down out of this tight range, that would be maybe some big headline companies in some key sectors starting to show bad results, much lower sales forecasts or revenue forecasts in the second half of the year and that, that would reverberate through the economy. Now, we did get a negative number from UPS early this week. If there was one really negative stand out in the market ups was down about 10% and we don't and the transportation sector did get hit hard for two days, but it came back and recouped maybe 75% of those losses that it had early in the week in the last two days. So maybe that was an outlier, but it's something that we're going to have to watch carefully from some of the other carriers. Ok, Timothy Anderson, managing director at TJM Investments. Timothy. Thank you. It was nice to be with you.